Agriculture : News
DATE: July 25, 2010
HARDIN COUNTY COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICE
201 Peterson Drive
Elizabethtown, Kentucky 42701-9370
BY: Doug Shepherd
County Extension Agent for Agriculture and Natural Resources
Market Overview - Both Crops and Livestock:
Since the first week of July Corn, Soybeans, and wheat futures prices have all
significantly increased. December 2010 corn futures reached contract lows before rebounding $0.62 (or 18%) to close around $4.07 on Friday, July 16, 2010, but has since declined to close at $3.74 this past week. Corn futures have not been this high since the beginning of March. November 2010 soybean futures gained about $0.74 to close around $9.76 on Friday, July 23, 2010. It was the end of April when soybean futures last closed at these levels. September 2010 CME Group wheat futures have gained about $1.84 to close around $6.64 last Friday. Seven months have passed since wheat futures last reached current levels.
For corn, the USDA crop progress report for last week indicates that 72% of the nation’s crop is rated good to excellent. This is down slightly from the previous week but up 1% from a year ago. For Kentucky, the USDA crop progress report indicates that 65% is rated good to excellent. Probably more important at this stage, is that 65% of the corn is silking, well above the five year average of 47%.
For soybeans, the USDA crop progress report indicates that 67% of the nation’s crop is rated good to excellent. This is up slightly from the previous week and about the same as this time last year. For Kentucky, the USDA crop progress report indicates that 68% is rated good to excellent. Nationwide, 60% were blooming and 18% were setting pods, well ahead of last year.
Even though we are in the middle of the growing season, and yields to this point are uncertain, price changes are not all supply driven according to Dr. Cory Walters, UK Extension Grain Marketing Specialist. Since the end of the first week in June, the nominal U.S. broad dollar index, which measures the value of the U.S. dollar relative to major trading partners, has fallen over 3%. Commodity index funds for both corn and soybeans have been in a sideways position for the past few months. For corn, speculators are net long, meaning there are more longs or purchases than shorts or sales of futures contracts, indicating a slight sense of bullishness. For soybeans, speculators are net short, indicating some bearishness.
Prices will continue to be volatile given unknowns in U.S. yields (i.e., weather), global economy, and size of crops from competing nations. Price expectations should not be based upon speculation but upon profit expectations. For questions and comments please contact Cory Walters at cgwalters@uky.edu.
Dr. Chad Lee, UK Extension Grain Specialist, last week stated that the state’s corn crop looks great from the road. But before you decide to contract the rest of your expected yields, get into the fields and make sure pollination went well.
We have received several reports of fields with poor pollination. It seems that pockets of a fields have poor pollination. Plants in the same row may have good pollination while others had terrible pollination. At this point, hot dry weather and slight variations as to when pollen drop occurred appears to be the best explanation. This can be unsettling when the whole field looks excellent from the road.
You can check your fields in the following manner. If the silks are dry, then pull back the husks and look at the developing "blisters" or seeds. You know how a good ear of corn should look... even number of rows, pollination from the base to the tip of the ear.
If the silks are still wet, but pollen drop appears to be complete, then you can gently remove the husks and get an estimate of pollination. To do this, make a cut through the husks with a sharp pocket knife along the ear. Start at the base of the ear and slice up to the tip. Make a second slice on the other side of the ear. If you have done a good job making the slices, you should be able to gently pull off the husks without removing the silks. If silks come off with the husks, then get a new ear and start over.
Once you have successfully removed the husks and kept the silks on the ear, hold the ear at the base and gently shake it. You may want to point the top of the ear towards the ground. As you gently shake, silks will fall from the ear if pollination has occurred. Again, you are hoping for all of the silks to fall from the ear. Pollination normally occurs from the base of the ear and then moves toward the top. If you happen to get an ear where the silks near the base fall off, but the silks near the top do not, then pollination may not be complete in the field.
On the Cattle Side:
According to the latest numbers, the nation’s cow herd continues to shrink. Exports are
increasing, 25% over the previous year, and imports are decreasing, down approximately ten percent. Net result, declining beef supplies nationwide. Consumer demand for beef is improving. Bottom line for the producer and consumer, expect rising prices.
So cow-calf producers, show benefit from the expected decline in supply, improved trade situation and demand. All cow-calf inventory should see higher values, but there are several outside factors that could impact those values. Mainly production costs and the price of corn, both which are affected by interest prices and inflation. Margins in the cow-calf sector have been tight, but positive and should improve if prices increase as expected.
Face Fly Control – A Difficult Task:
Face flies are hard to control, even under the best of circumstances. They spend very little time on animals and then visits are mostly limited to the face and head-areas that are hard to treat. Forced use dust bags provide the best chance for effective control if animals have to go under them daily for water or mineral. This application method has the advantage of getting an insecticide on the area that face flies visit on a regular basis. Even then, control may be less than ideal. Consider supplementing a pasture fly control program with these devices if face fly numbers are above what you would like to see.
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